Should Kubiak have kicked?
By Grant Moss on November 30, 2016

Last Sunday was an exciting day in the NFL. The day wrapped up with a thrilling competition between two AFC West rivals, the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. 

It was a defensive battle for the most part with Von Miller and Justin Houston leading the charge for their respective teams. The Chiefs’ Tyreek Hill found himself in the history books, joining Gale Sayers as the only players to have scored three touchdowns in three different ways in a single game; one free kick return, one rushing touchdown, and one receiving touchdown with 12 seconds left in regulation to set up the game-tying 2-point conversion and send the game into overtime.

After a full four quarters of intense scheming from Andy Reid and Gary Kubiak, overtime had more in store. Both teams converted their first possession of overtime into field goals. With the game now tied at 27 and 1:08 left in the game, the Broncos were facing a 4th-and-10 from Kansas City's 44 yard line. Coach Kubiak had a big decision to make. He had three options:

Punt

If Kubiak decides to punt the ball away, Denver essentially concedes to a tie because there won’t be enough time to get the ball back. However, it does put the pressure on Kansas City to drive the length of the field with less than a minute (which they already did once). Despite being exhausted, the solid Denver defense probably could have held the Chiefs to secure yet another tie in the NFL this season.

Field Goal

If you’re going to try a 62-yard field goal, Mile High Stadium is the place to do it. The venue has already seen Jason Elam hit a 63-yard attempt and Matt Prater knock through a 64-yard field goal. Both being the two longest field goals in NFL history (Elam tied with Tom Dempsey).

On the flip side, current Broncos' kicker Brandon McManus’ career long is just 57 yards. A triumphant kick through the uprights makes Kubiak a genius and McManus a hero. A miss gives that tired Denver defense a steep uphill battle to keep the Chiefs out of field goal range. But, the choice shows faith in the kicker, defense, and gives the Broncos a chance to win the game.

Go For It

If I was wearing the headset, this would be my call. 4th-and-10 from the Kansas City 44 yard line. A New York Times article from 2014 ran an analysis that suggested a punt would be the appropriate call. The analysis also suggested to go for it from the same point on the field if the first down marker was only seven yards away. Given the situation of the game, I would take my chances on the three extra yards.

If the offense can convert, it allows the drive to continue, runs more time off the clock, and gives McManus an easier shot at a game winner. The Chiefs already had a successful 4th-and-10 play on their final drive in regulation. So, we know it is possible. Not to mention that a failed attempt gives Kansas City the ball back at the original line of scrimmage, the Kansas City 44, rather than the spot of the kick, the Denver 48. So, why not see what the offense can do?

Gary Kubiak ultimately decided to send his kicker out to try what would have been the longest game-winning field goal in NFL history. McManus had the distance but hooked it way left. It only took two completions and a penalty against the Broncos defense to set up Chiefs kicker Cairo Santos for a 34-yard field goal that ricocheted off the left upright and snuck in behind the right upright to win the game 30-27.

Coach Kubiak might be kicking himself all week, but from a fan standpoint, you couldn’t have asked for a more exciting finish. What a nail biter!

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